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Baseball Prospectus recently unveiled their AL Central preview and talk about some interesting results.  The good news is, they have the Tigers tied for first place.  The bad news is, they’re tied with the Twins and White Sox and all three teams have a projected record of 80-82.  That’s right, nobody is projected to have a winning record.

Christina Karhl does provide us with the caveat that even a lot could happen between now and the first game of the season.  There’s some good thing to say about the bullpen but some cautious comments on Rick Porcello.

This is some good news.  Lynn Henning’s latest talks about the Tigers who are on the mend and he reports the Scott Sizemore should be fully healed from the broken leg  he suffered in the Arizona Fall League.  It’s also nice to see Brandon Inge has been working hard and he’s been in Lakeland for a while working on his rehab.  There’s some good reports on Joel Zumaya and Jeremy Bonderman as well.  Having all four of those guys ready to go will go a long way towards the Tigers making a push in 2010.

If there’s one guy the Tigers regret giving away in the short term, it’s Jair Jurrjens.  He’s had a couple of solid seasons for the Braves and had he replicated his feats in a Tigers uniform, he could have been enough to help the Tigers make the playoffs last year.  Even worse, we ultimately got nothing for him because Edgar Renteria came and went.

Now Jurrjens has some pain in his throwing shoulder and he’s going to have an MRI. He’s has some discomfort in the shoulder while throwing at the Braves spring training facility and the hope is that there’s no structural damage.  He finished strong last year so you wonder if it’s just him getting back into his normal routine.  This is probably a question for the experts but you wonder how many flukish injuries that you see in April and May actually have their roots in the first couple weeks of spring training.

Ken Rosenthal is the latest to provide us with the soap opera that is Johnny Damon.  Based on this, it looks like the Tigers are close money wise but this could still drag out if Damon wants to fish for a better deal.  It also looks like the Braves might be out of the running and the White Sox fabricated interest in Damon could be what’s keeping this going.

It looks like Curtis Granderson roaming centerfield at Yankee Stadium isn’t a foregone conclusion.  The Yankees have Brett Gardner and with a hold in left field, Granderson is keeping himself open to manning the corner outfield spot.  When Granderson came up through the minors, many thought centerfield was over his head (one of many things people were wrong about) and that he’d eventually end up as a corner outfielder.  Now it looks like he could be pushed in that direction depending on what happens with Garnder.

I’m waiting to write some substantial until the Tigers actually sign Johnny Damon.  In the meantime, here’s the latest mailbag with Jason Beck.  First and foremost is why Damon is taking so long to sign but he also touches on why the Tigers might sign Damon when the dealt Granderson as well as why there’s so much hype surrounding Damon.  His answer to the Year of the Tiger question is pretty funny as well.

With pitchers and catchers set to report this week, Lynn Henning thinks the Tigers are going to be lucky to hit the .500 mark  in 2010.  He said 75 is more realistic with 80 being a stretch and that’s even with Damon in the fold.  I personally think their hitting won’t be that much worse then in 2009 but their pitching should actually be a little better.  I think Jose Valverde and Max Scherzer are upgrades over their 2009 counterparts.  Keep in mind, Alfredo Figaro started game number 161 so the rotation can’t be much worse then it was at the end of last year (not that I’m down on Figaro, I just think they put him in over his head).

One thing I don’t agree with about this piece is where he says Casper Wells is the most pivotal player reporting this week.  The Tigers have plenty of options out in centerfield, and while none of them will be as desirable in April as Curtis Granderson would have been, what happens in spring training doesn’t neccesarily portend what’ll happen the rest of the season.  I think Austin Jackson starts at Toledo (having Jackson and Sizemore starting at the same time might too much for Leyland to stomach).  I bet they go with a placeholder (Clete Thomas, Casper Wells  or Ryan Raburn) in center until they think Austin Jackson is ready.

It looks like the price to keep Edwin Jackson would have been pretty high because he signed a two year, $13.35 million deal to buy out Edwin Jackson’s final two years of arbitration.  It’ll be interesting to see how Jackson does in Arizona in 2010.  He’s coming off of a career high 214 innings and that’s after throwing nearly 190 innings in 2008 (including the postseason). 

Keep in mind, it was Justin Verlander who had a tough time in this third season after throwing back to back career highs in innings.  Jackson also had a rough second half in which he saw his strikeout to walk ratio dip severely.  Chase Field is also still a hitters park, although he’ll have the benefit of throwing to the pitcher now that he’s back in the National League.  My bet is, Jackson takes a step back before he takes his next step forward and I like the idea of having Max Scherzer in the rotation more then I do having Jackson.

It looks like the Tigers are going to sign Johnny Damon and while they play different positions in the field, Damon will fill at lead off and all but try to fill in for the Tigers exciting former centerfielder.  It’s also interesting because the Yankees have effectively made the swap but in the other direction.  That’s why Troy Patterson’s latest is about the Yankees basically getting a younger Johnny Damon in Curtis Granderson.

What’s also interesting is if the Tigers sign Damon to the rumored $7 million, they’ll actually paying more for Damon to fill in for a year then they would have paid Granderson ($5.5 million) in 2010.  Of course with that cheap year out of the way, Granderson might be tougher to trade after the 2010 season.  Bottom line is, it’s been an interesting offseason for the Tigers.  Let’s just hope the front office knows what they’re doing.

It’s hard to believe Cameron Maybin is just 22 years old because it seems like he’s been around for ever.  He debuted with the Tigers in 2007 and since being traded to the Marlins, he’s spent most of his time playing in the minors.  He made the team out of spring training last year but he struggled and found himself back in the minors.  This year, the Marlins are expecting big things and he’s expected to his number two in the Marlins lineup.

It’ll be interesting to see how that big trade back in 2007 is going to work out.  So far, it’s looking more like a straight up trade with Maybin going to the Marlins and Miguel Cabrera coming to the Tigers.    Andrew Miller hasn’t done much nor has anyone else that the Tigers sent over.  In fact Mike Rabello is back with Detroit.  Anyway, Cabrera has been effective but the prize (playoffs and the World Series) hasn’t been achieved and some of that money we’re paying Cabrera could have been used to keep Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson and to sign Justin Verlander.  We’ll just have to wait and see if Maybin ever lives up to his potential and breaks out.

I’ve always wanted to go to Tigers fantasy camp and it’s on my list of things I want to do (at some point in my life).  I’ve talked to a few people who have gone but David Laurila did a really nice job of describing his experience this year.  There’s some great stuff in here about Milt Wilcox, Dave Rozema and Jon Warden.

Now this is interesting.  Buster Olney is reporting that the two year offer the Tigers made is actually a smokescreen of sorts to help Scott Boras save face over how he handled (or if you like, mishandled) Johnny Damon.  The idea is that the two year offer was publicized but that it’ll eventually be turned down in favor of the Tigers original one year, $7 million offer.  The question now is, if the cats out of the bag, does Boras really save face.   Felipe Lopez just fired him and then there was the whole A-Rod fiasco a couple of years ago.

It looks like the Johnny Damon saga is going to drag on for another week because he’s going to wait until he gets back from his Hawaii vacation to make a decision as to who he’ll play with.  The Tigers appear to be the frontrunners but you wonder if the stalling tactic is to see if another team or two enters the fray.  It also wouldn’t surprise that with the entrance of the White Sox into the mix, that Boras tries to play the division rivals against each other.

Scott Boras must be loving this.  Now the White Sox have put their name in the hat for Johnny Damon.  There’s nothing like your division rival forcing you to push up your price.  The Tigers have more room for Damon but the White Sox have shown that they can make a crowded outfield work although in Chicago he’d probably spend more time as a DH.  Of course with Scott Boras involved, this could simply have meant that the White Sox called to see where the current bidding is at and little more.

According to “sources,” Tigers owner Mike Ilitch has told the front office that he’ll go along with a two year, $14 million deal for Johnny Damon.  This appears to be the top money out there so it looks like Damon could be a Tiger in 2010 just a week before pitchers and catchers report.

Bless you Boys gives us a great update on where the Tigers are at with Johnny Damon.  It looks like the Braves are sticking their nose in with the Rays looking to pick up the scraps.  Of course with Scott Boras involved, you never know what’s real and what’s being thrown out to help spur the bidding.

Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman have been throwing the ball around down in Lakeland and Verlander has some encouraging news.  Bonderman hasn’t thrown well since the first half of 2007 and at this point, having him be an effective starter would go a long way towards the Tigers making the playoffs in 2010.  Verlander reported that Bonderman’s looked sharp so that’s something nice to hear as spring training opens up next week.

With pitchers and catchers reporting in close to a week, I have a few more optimistic pieces planned but I wanted to write one more downer article.  Back in 2006, Tigers fans were sky high.  While the Tigers fell short of winning the World Series, they put themselves back on the map.  Now with that season three seasons removed, I wonder if overachieving (which is safe to say based on what’s happened since) in 2006 actually hurt the Tigers (or rather, forced the front office to go in a direction they shouldn’t have) in the long run.

While the offseason between the 2007 and 2008 seasons pretty much defined this team for years to come, a lot of what happened then was with 2006 as a back drop.  The Tigers fell just short in 2007, they signed a big television contract and went out and spent money on the likes of Miguel Cabrera (good), Dontrelle Willis (bad), Brandon Inge (okay), Nate Robertson (bad) and Jeremy Bonderman (good at the time but it’s turned out bad).  Those deals have defined the Tigers and it eventually meant the Tigers had to unload Curtis Granderson, Placido Polanco, Edwin Jackson and the front end of their bullpen just to sign Justin Verlander and to keep the rest of the team intact.

The good news is, a lot of the prospects the Tigers gave up over the past few years haven’t worked out for the other team.  Andrew Miller has had a rough time and Cameron Maybin hasn’t lived up to his potential.  Jair Jurrjens is the one guy who the Tigers probably wish they could have back.  The deal that got everything going after 2006 which brought Gary Sheffield to town hasn’t lost the Tigers much either.  Humberto Sanchez has been injured most of the time and unproductive the rest of the time, while Anthony Claggett hasn’t done much.  Kevin Whelan looks like he has some potential but he still hasn’t pitched a major league inning and he just turned 26.

I’m bouncing around here, but it’s tough to tell.  The Tigers should have made the playoffs since 2006 but they haven’t.  The guys they’ve brought in haven’t gotten it done but the prospects they’ve given up along the way haven’t lit the world on fire either (at least not yet).  And the Tigers set a couple of attendance records along the way.  The big negative is that the Tigers have spent a ton of cash, have little to show for it, and now the Tigers put themselves into a situation where they had to do a little dismantling just to keep their franchise player.  It’s easy when you have hindsight though.

The Tigers have said that they completed a five year deal that will keep Justin Verlander in town for the forseeable future.  With all of the emphasis toward cutting salary (up until they signed Jose Valverde), this was a welcome move for Tiger fans and it all came down as the arbitration date was getting closer.  The number that’s being thrown around is $80 million which means Verlander will make a couple more million then Felix Hernandez’s deal earlier in the week.  There’s no details yet (that I’ve found) that breaks down how much Verlander will make year by year.

That answers part of the question as to why the Tigers made their big deal at the Winter Meetings and why the Tigers took a pass on Polanco.  Of course the Tigers have had a tough time lately signing guys near the end of the arbitration seasons to longer terms deals.  Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson are all making more then they’ll probably produce this year but then again, outside of Bonderman in 2006, none of those Tigers have had seasons even close to what Verlander put together in 2009.

Keith Law’s latest blog post is on top rookie prospects for 2010 and he touches on Austin Jackson, Al Avila and Scott Sizemore.  He has some nice things to say about Sizemore which is encouraging.  I’m still a little pessimistic (about him at second next year, not long term) so hopefully I’m wrong.

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