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The Tigers traded minor league outfielder Jeff Frazier for Mariners right hander Yorman Bazardo.  NBCsports.com liked the deal but it’s worth taking a look at both players.

First off is Jeff Frazier, who the Tigers gave up.  Frazier had a very rough year at High A Lakeland in 2006 and this was as a 24 year old.  And he didn’t even show up as an honorable mention in John Sickels top 20 Tiger prospects.  Because Bazardo was designated for assignment, it looks like Frazier was all the Mariners could get for him before somebody scooped him up on waivers.

Yorman Bazardo came in as the Mariners ninth best prospect and while his strikeout rate wasn’t great, he had a very solid season in the Texas League as a starter.  He was even better in winter ball as a reliever in the Venezuelan winter league and he threw five shutout innings in the Caribbean World Series.  He has an option left, so he’ll probably start 2007 in either Erie or Toledo.  This is one of those deals that could mean nothing but if Bazardo even turns into just a quality reliever, the time put into this deal will be worth it.

If you didn’t buy the book Fantasyland by Sam Walker last year, you now have a new reason to pick it up.  The book recently came out in a paperback and it’s only around $10.  This was one of the best baseball books I read in 2006 and it was picked as a top read in the Hardball Times Baseball Annual.  I reviewed the book last year and you can check it out here.

The Tigers traded minor league outfielder Jeff Frazier for right handed pitcher Yorman Bazardo today.  Check back later tonight and I’ll take a look at both prospects.

John Sickels recently unveiled what he thinks Curtis Granderson should do through out his career.  Good stuff and no real surprises.  I agree that Granderson will be a steady, good but not great outfielder through out his career.  I could also live with that 2007 line assuming he brings the glove like he did in 2006.

His line at PECOTA is very similar.  His weighted mean average has him at .265/.342/.463 with 21 homeruns and his 75th percentile is .283/.362/.504.  So if you’re looking at Granderson, you should be looking for around 20 homeruns and a batting average hovering around .265-.270.  Good stuff for a guy who’s basically going to be a support player.  If he hits that 75th percentile, I think he’ll score a 100 runs if he continues to bat leadoff.

A ton of Tigers and Tiger prospects saw time in both the Arizona Fall League and the various winter leagues.  With the action finished, it’s worth taking a look at how these players did and MLB.com has a nice summary of the action.

Omar Infante had a particularly good season.  It sure would be nice if he could get some playing time and show some flashes of what he did for us in 2004.  I know Placido Polanco is very solid but having a good backup in Infante would go a long way towards having a solid season in Tigertown.

Wilfredo Ledezma, who could be vying for the fifth spot in the rotation, had a very rough time in the Venezuelan winter league.  In three starts, he lasted only eight innings and gave up twelve runs.  He threw better in the playoffs but that’s very encouraging.

And then there was Jordan Tata, who made a name for himself at the Arizona Fall League.  He posted a rock solid 2.63 ERA in six starts.  His strikeouts weren’t there (12 in 24 innings) but he walked only seven batters.

Sporting News recently ranked the infields in the American League and there’s no surprise that the Tigers found themselves near the top.  The Tigers ranked fourth and they were behind the Yankees, White Sox and Rangers and just ahead of the Mariners.  I don’t know, I like the Rangers better then the White Sox and think the Tigers are right there with the White Sox so I could have seen them as high as third.

Tigers left handed starter Nate Robertson is the Tiger to stick around Michigan during the winter according to this Detroit Free Press report.  It’s nice to see someone sticks around.

In a lot of ways, Nate Robertson could be the most important pitcher in the rotation.  People expect a lot from Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander and I don’t think anyone expects a repeat from 2006 out of Kenny Rogers so having Robertson throwing like he did last year would go a long way towards another 90+ win season. 

PECOTA doesn’t seem to expect much from Robertson in 2007.  His weighted mean average is only a 1.40 WHIP with a 4.41 ERA.  They also expect a stablization in his strikeout rate (5.4/9 innings, which matches his 2005 total and is just under his 5.6/9 that he had last year).  If he could nail his 75th percentile though, which is a 1.34 WHIP and a 3.93 ERA and a 5.6/9 strikeout rate, I’d be pretty happy.  The one nice thing about his PECOTA card is he has a very lose collapse rate (8%) but a very high improve rate (60%) so it shouldn’t be a huge surprise if Robertson beats that weighted mean average line.

Robertson’s most comparable player is 1960s White Sox starter Gary Peters.   Not too shabby because Peters did eventually win 20 games with a pretty solid ERA but only a good strikeout rate.

Tigers farm director Glenn Ezell was interviewed on Around the Minors.  He had a lot to say about the Tigers farm system and you can listen to the entire interview at MinorLeagueBaseball.com.  Here are a few tidbits.

Cameron Maybin should start the season at Lakeland (High A) so the Tigers top two prospects will start there.  Should be fun checking out that team but I expect both to be at Double A at some point in the season.

He had a lot of nice things to say about Jordan Tata and Virgel Vazquez, as well as a few other pitchers in the farm system.

Tigers 2003 first round draft pick Kyle Sleeth was mentioned and Ezell said he’s talked to him and liked his frame of mind but wasn’t sure how that would equate to on field performance.  He didn’t rule out a breakout though.

I’m old enough to remember when the Tigers had their Triple A affiliate in Evansville, OH but for most of you, the Mud Hens in Toledo have been the Tigers Triple A afffiliate for as long as you can remember.  Now the Tigers have extended their deal with the Mud Hens and they’ll be keeping Toledo as their minor league affiliate through 2010.

The Tigers have the seventh longest relationship with a Triple A affiliate in baseball right now and it’s also nice because Toledo isn’t “too” far from Detroit so making a game is very possible with some planning. On top of that, the Mud Hens have had a fantastic run.  They’ve won the International League championship the past two years and they set an attendance record last year.

Personally, I’ve never made it to a Mud Hens game but I’m hoping too this year.  From what everyone who’s gone has told me, it’s a fun time.

If you like watching Tiger baseball on the tube, there’s some good news for you.  Fox Sports Net (FSN) and the Tigers came to an agreement that would air 151 regular season games.  Another ten will be on national television which means only one baseball game won’t make it onto television.  Only the Tigers first Saturday game against the Royals won’t be seen on television.  And this year, instead of the non-FSN games being on channel 20, they’ll be on Fox 2.

Right handed relief pitcher Roman Colon had surgery on his neck in the offseason and it doesn’t look like he’ll be ready for the start of the season so it’s expected that he’ll find his way onto the disabled list at the beginning of the year.  An ancilliary benefit of this is, Colon is out of options so it lets us carry the pitcher while he recovers from surgery.  It didn’t seem likely that Colon was going to make the team based on the current start of the Tigers bullpen so this gives the Tigers a little more time to figure out what to do with him.

I’m a little late on this but I just found it.  NBCsports.com unveiled their 2007 Tigers preseason preview last week.  Joel Zumaya is the cover boy and while there’s no huge surprises in here, the conclusion is one of the most pessimistic I’ve seen.  I mean, the Tigers are a lock to make the playoffs, right?

I don’t want to sound too much like a stick in the mud, but I’m hoping 2006 didn’t spoil Tigers fans.  I definitely think the Tigers will be in the mix in 2007 but a playoff spot is hardly a forgone conclusion.  In my opinion, the two best teams in the American League last year were the White Sox and the Yankees.  The Tigers bounced the Yankees early and the White Sox didn’t even get in.  Good teams don’t always make the playoffs, for a variety of reasons.  I’d be extremely happy if the Tigers made the playoffs three out of the next five years.  The question is though, do they take two years off before making a three run?  Are they in one year and out the next?

I’m just worried because the AL Central has become a pretty tough division.  You know the White Sox will be right there, and the Twins, even with their pitching woes, should be able to make a run as well.  You also can’t forget about the Indians either.  And with the additions that the Red Sox (now possibly Todd Helton) and Yankees have made, you figure the one finishes second is the team to beat for the Wild Card.

Then again, there’s also a ton to be happy about.  When your left handed specialist is your biggest loss, you know you’re doing pretty well.  And when you add a monster bat to the lineup like Sheffield, it should make the lineup more productive.

Did you ever think, say even two or three years ago, that anyone would be saying this about the Tigers?

In the Tigers expanding quest to find a left handed relief pitcher to replace Jamie Walker, the Tigers signed lefty Joey Eischen to a minor league deal.  Eischen was having a pretty rough season on the face of things before it got completely derailed because of shoulder surgery.  The reason that I say “on the face of things” is because he was completely awesome in an incredibly small sample size against left handed batters.  Lefties were just two for twenty three against Eichen in 2006.  Of course righties hit .421 against him. 

2005 might be a better gauge.  He was mediocre against both righties (.254) and lefties (.250).  He does have 244 career strikeouts in 296 1/3 innings though and that ability to strike someone out can be pretty valuable.  He also keeps the ball down and doesn’t give up a ton of homeruns (25 in those 296 1/3 innings).

Assuming he’s ready from his shoulder surgery, I think Eischen is worth a look as opposed to Jose Mesa, who I have little confidence in.

Jason Beck, the Tiger’s beat writer for MLB.com, recently published a mailbag column.  He answers questions about the trade value of a close to free agency semi-veteran versus a prospect that hasn’t even hit the majors yet.  He also touches on why all of the good prospects are at Double A and not Triple A and the one thing I was surprised to see was that he thought Andrew Miller was going to start the season at Lakeland (High A).  There’s a lot of good stuff in here.

The last of what I now consider as the Big Three in prospects list published their top ten Tiger prospects.  Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus tackled the Tigers and like the lists at Baseball America and Minor League Ball, we get the same impressions.  The Tigers have two awesome prospects at the top, but then it thins out pretty quickly.

I found Goldstein’s list interesting because he has Gorkys Hernandez as the third best prospect.  Hernandez comes in at seventh on the BA list and he’s fifth on Sickel’s list (with a B- rating).  It’ll be interesting to see how he does for the White Caps as a 19 year old, which is where he’ll probably start out.  Of course the problem is, he’s a centerfielder, which the Tigers are slowing creating a glut of.  He’s probably at least one year behind Maybin, maybe two, so we won’t have to worry too much about finding room for Hernandez is he’s the real deal.  Or he could be a solid trade candidate.

Brent Clevlen dropped all the way to eight and coming in at number ten is the Edward Campusano, who’s effectively the Tigers Rule 5 pick from this year (they bought him from the Brewers). 

It’s hard to argue that Jeremy Bonderman hasn’t gotten better in each of his four major league seasons.  He nearly doubled his 2003 strikout total (108) in his 2006 campaign (202) and the number of innings he’s logged has gone up in each of the four years while his ERA has come down in all four.  He still hasn’t broken through the 15 win barrier, but his 14-8 record in 2006 doesn’t do him justice.  Jeremy Bonderman is the best pitcher on the Tigers right now.  At some point, Justin Verlander and maybe even Andrew Miller could pass him, but Bonderman’s the ace and he showed flashes of being one in 2006.

So the question is, if he’s so good, when will we see that season where he finishes near, or even at, the top of the Cy Young voting?   I personally think that season could be 2007 and in a lot of ways, so does Baseball Prospectus.

Baseball Prospectus recently published their PECOTA cards for the 2007 season.  You can check out Bonderman’s card but here’s a quick run down.

The first thing that was noteworthy was that they put Jeremy Bonderman sixth in all of baseball and third in the American League in weighted mean VORP (44.7).  The guys in front of him are Pedro Martinez, Brandon Webb, Roy Halladay, Jake Peavy and of course the front runner, Johan Santana.  So if the projections end up being correct and he finishes as the sixth best pitcher to that group, I wouldn’t see a whole lot of shame in that.

The one thing I did find odd is even Bonderman’s 90 percentile doesn’t have him at 200 strikeouts.  It does have him at 16-6 with a 1.13 WHIP and a 2.62 ERA.  Although I have a feeling if he has a 2.62 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, that we’ll see closer to 20 wins with the lineup that the Tigers will be bringing in 2007.

Probably the most impressive part of the card was that BP gives Bonderman a 45% breakout rate and an 88% improve rate.  So they’re basically saying that in all likely hood, Bonderman should top that mean weighted average and then have a 50% of coming out close to the top.  I like those numbers especially when you combine them with only a 4% attrition and a 4% collages rating. 

Also impressive is Bonderman’s comparable pitchers.  He has a 42 similarity index which is okay for making comparisons and his most comparable pitcher is Larry Dierker who had a pretty solid career before flaming out. He won 22 games as a 22 year old but he was done by age 30.  Second is Bill Gullickson, who also had an early start and had a breakout season at the age of 24.  I thought the most optimistic one was Bert Blyleven, who is Bonderman’s fifth most comparable pitcher. 

The cards are a lot of fun to check out.  Sheffield’s card doesn’t look too hot but his 2006 injury plays a big factor in that.  They expect a pretty steep decline from Kenny Rogers and they have a pretty wide range for what Justin Verlander might do. 

Part two of my interview with Ernie Harwell is up today at the Hardball Times.  While Part one talks more about the audiobook, part two were more personal questions I thought would be interesting.  Mr. Harwell was more then happy to accomodate.

It seems like even though I’m not working in the traditional sense (i.e. I have no job right now), my time has been filled with other stuff and I’m busier then ever.  No sweat, but I haven’t been giving my fellow bloggers, who I use for information on a regular basis, any love.  So here’s a little.

I picked this up at Detroit Tigers Weblog.  Fox Sports Net will be replaying the Tigers playoff wins so set your VCR.  Billfer has also been doing a ton of work on examining how well (or not so well) the Tigers work the count and it’s impact.  Good stuff.

And Detroit Tiger Tales has taken a fresh approach at rating fielders by combining several of the fielding metrics that out there.  Curtis Granderson finished third last year in the centerfield category, which was ahead of gold glove mainstays like Mike Cameron and Jim Edmonds.  Not too shabby for Granderson and some nice analysis by Lee Panas.

It’s amazing the difference that three years can make.  Prior to the 2005 season, the Tigers supposedly made big league offers to guys like Carl Pavano and Steve Finley only to be shot down.  What turned out to be a blessing in disguise, the Tigers kept their money and now have one of the deepest pitching staffs in baseball.

In this Free Press Column, prospects Jordan Tata and Virgil Vasquez talk about the pros and cons of getting traded.  On the one hand, there’s plenty of traffic in their way.  Andrew Miller might not be in the rotation to start this season, but you know he’ll be there no later then 2008 and that’s probably selling him short.  Guys like Tata and Vazquez are icing on the cake.  Their path got a little shorter when the Tigers traded Humberto Sanchez but they’re still like seventh and eighth on the depth chart.

Then on the other hand, when they do get the call, they should be playing for a winner.  And that’s the sweet part for Tiger fans.  The Tigers might not make the playoffs evey season over the next four or five, but you figure they should be right there every year.

The Tigers recently announced a three year deal that will keep Tiger games on AM1270.  In addition, games will be broadcast on FM97.1.  Not happy with the area of their coverage, the team is hoping that with the foray into FM that more listeners will be able to tune in.  There was speculation that the games would pulled from AM1270 and put onto FM97.1 but it looks like they wanted to continue with the AM station because of it’s sports content to help promote the team.  The move to FM has become a trend in the last couple of years that other teams are following.

In addition, Dan Dickerson and Jim Price are coming back.  i really enjoy listening to the duo and am glad they’ll be back.  Plus, I feel they’re owed something because of what they had to go through in 2003.  2006 for them was a just reward but I like the flow of the broadcast and I’d still much rather listen to the game on the radio then watch in on TV.

In other broadcasting news, I had a rare treat this week.  To help him promote his new audiobook, I had a chance to interview Ernie Harwell for the Hardball Times.  If I had to put together a list of five people I’d want to sit down and have a conversation with about baseball, Ernie Harwell would top the list so it was definitely something that I truly enjoyed.  Mr. Harwell was very helpful and you can check out the interview on Wednesday.  And if you haven’t checked out the audiobook, it’s awesome.  It’s four hours and I’ve listened to it twice.

In 2005, the Toledo Mud Hens won their first Governor’s Cup (the International League championship) since 1967.  The team then repeated in 2006 despite barely making the playoffs (they needed to win a one game playoff just to get in).  The skipper of both of those teams was former Tiger manager Larry Parrish, who was highlighted recently at Minor League Baseball.  Good stuff.

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