Author Archive

Alright, pitchers and catchers report soon and I’m in a predicting kind of mood.  This is who I think the Tigers will take with them to New York when the break camp for their home opener.  A lot of these are no brainers, but I’ll also leave my comments where I think they’re appropriate.

Position Players

1)  Victor Martinez
2)  Alex Avila
3) Miguel Cabrera
4a) Carlos Guillen (but he’ll start the season the DL, so there will be 26 names on the list)
4b) Scott Sizemore
5) Will Rhymes (Sizemore and Rhymes will split time at second until Guillen comes back)
6) Jhonny Peralta
7) Brandon Inge
8) Ryan Raburn
9) Austin Jackson
10) Miguel Cabrera Magglio Ordonez
11) Ramon Santiago
12) Don Kelly (he’ll play outfield and the Tigers are also going to have him work as a third catcher)
13) Casper Wells (he’ll beat out Brennan Boesch as the primary fourth outfielder)

Rotation

14) Justin Verlander
15) Max Scherzer
16) Rick Porcello
17) Brad Penny
18) Phil Coke

Bullpen

19) Jose Valverde
20) Joaquin Benoit
21) Joel Zumaya
22) Ryan Perry
23) Dan Schlereth
24) Brad Thomas
25) Robbie Weinhardt

Brennan Boesch, despite his breakout first half in 2010, will start the season in Toledo and he and Strieby should make a formidable pair there.  Andrew Oliver would have made a nice option instead of Weinhardt but I’m guessing they want to stick with him as a rotation option so he’ll be the ace in Toledo.  Jacob Turner will shine, but like Oliver, he’ll be the Hens ace but probably see himself in Toledo by year’s end.

The Tigers said they weren’t going to re-sign Jeremy Bonderman and it looks like he’s going to sign a minor league deal with the Indians.  Bonderman made his major league debut on April 2, 2003 and while he got shelled (his first of 19 losses that year), it was the beginning of a roller coaster career.  Just two days after Bonderman’s debut, I started Tigerblog and in those nearly eight years since there have been two constants on the field, Jeremy Bonderman and Brandon Inge.  With this news about Bonderman, the phrase “and then there was one” is rather fitting.

My birthday is July 5th and on that date in 2002, my fiance (at the time) surprised me with a weekend trip to Boston that included Tigers versus Red Sox tickets at Fenway Park.  It was supposed to be a national television battle of the aces with Pedro Martinez going up against Jeff Weaver (who was having a nice season for the Tigers at that point) but that fell apart when Weaver was traded to the Yankees in a three team deal that very night.  Ted Williams also passed away that day so it was an interesting weekend.  Anyway, the Tigers got Carlos Pena, Franklin German and a player to be named later in the deal.  On August 22, 2002, that player to be named later turned out to be Jeremy Bonderman.

In 2003, Bonderman was shut down late in the season so he wouldn’t suffer a 20th loss but September shutdowns wouldn’t be unusual for Bonderman.  He was a perennial pitcher to watch for several years and then in 2006, he finally got it done and had a break out year.   While Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander picked up Cy Young votes that year, if you really look at the numbers and not the win total, Bonderman was the best pitcher in the rotation that year.  He pitched in over 200 innings for the first (and only) time to date and he struck out 202 batters.

2007 looked just as promising but after a 10-1 start he went 1-8 the rest of the way and he was shut down in September.  He then got off to a decent enough start in 2008 but then the blood clot was found and he missed the rest of that year and most of 2009.  In 2010, he pitched the entire season but not very well.  For a guy who was consistently in the mid-90s, he was having a hard time just touching that in a game and while he may eventually perfect his new style, it didn’t happen all at once in 2010.

Bonderman is still young.  He doesn’t 29 until late October so maybe there’s a come back in him.  It just doesn’t look like it’ll be with the Tigers.  Farewell Bondo, we wish you the best.

Phil Coke acted as the Tigers primary left handed relief pitcher in 2010 and while he was usually called on to pitch to more then one batter, he did pitch in more games (74) then he had innings pitched (64 2/3).  In the second half, he pitched more then one inning only three times and one of those was the rough start he had on the final day of the season.  The Tigers and Phil Coke think he’ll make a good starter (and I tend to agree with them), I just don’t think it’ll be as smooth of a transition as people think.  The last time he pitched more then three innings in a game was when he was still starting in the minors back in 2008.  I’m hopeful long term, but think he might have his bumps early I just hope those come while he works out the kinks in spring training.

That leaves a hole in the pen and it looks like the Tigers are counting on Dan Schlereth to fill the left handed hole.  He also came over in the Edwin Jackson/Curtis Granderson trade (the circle is now complete, all four guys the Tigers got should make the opening day roster) and while Schlereth is a hard thrower, his role as a short relief specialist troubles me a bit because he sometimes has a hard time finding the plate.  In his brief major league career, he has 25 walks in 37 innings.  For the Hens last year, he had 34 walks in 49 1/3 innings.  If you’re bringing in a guy to get just one out and he walks that many guys, it’s going to be a problem.  And if it means the other team isn’t afraid to leave their lefty hitter in the game because they know they can ride a guy in the mid-innings and draw a walk, then you can’t say he’s doing his job.

What’s of interest is not only is he better and striking out lefties, his walk rate is also a lot better at least if you look at his minor league numbers from last year.  For the Hens, he walked only 9 batters in 19 2/3 innings against lefties (not great, but better then his overall average) but he walked 25 batters in 29 2/3 innings against righties.  I’m not sure if this is a confidence thing or what, but this hasn’t carried over into his big league career.  In fact, in the short amount of time he’s pitched in the major leagues, his OPS against for right handed hitters is just .581 (102 plate appearances) while his OPS against for left handed hitters is a rather high .888 (71 plate appearances).  His walk rate is also worse at the big league level against lefties then it is against righties.

So, the good news is, with Benoit and Valverde (and hopefully a healthy Zumaya) and with a breakout season from Ryan Perry (prediction), we might not need to rely on Schlereth too much.  Still, just in looking at the numbers, you wonder how well Schlereth will thrive in this role.

Alright, over the weekend, news started coming out about how good of a fit Vlad Guerrero would be for the Tigers. At first I dismissed it as just speculation on a day where there’s no news, but then yesterday, someone told me that Vlad was in for a physical. I still haven’t confirmed that yet, but that still leaves the question as to whether Vlad Guerrero would make a nice fit with the team or not.

After an injury filled season in 2009, Vlad stormed back onto the scene with a very solid season for the Texas Rangers. He made an All Star appearance, won the Silver Slugger as a DH and he even earned some MVP votes as the second best hitter on a team that saw Josh Hamilton win the award. And even though Vlad hasn’t put up the monster numbers like he did earlier in his career, if you carve out his 2009 season, he’s had an OPS+ of over 130 every year except for 2009 and 2010 and even in 2010 he stood at 122. With a career .320 batting average, unless Vlad regresses quickly, he’s going to help our lineup.

Of course the casualty will be Alex Avila. If Guerrero is the team’s DH, then Victor Martinez will get most of his time at catcher which leave Avila short on playing time. It also means defense behind the plate could take a step back although Avila hasn’t established himself as a defensive superstar yet. It also means from a long term perspective, the guy you’ve pegged as your catcher of the future rides the pine for another year and doesn’t develop.

And there’s also the cynic in me. Both Dave Dombrowski and Jim Leyland are basically playing for their jobs. I know it’s always best to win now and take your chances later, but with the rotation still less then solid, I’d think that would be the focus although that could simply be a matter of there not being another guy out there that they want to take a chance on. Vlad Guerrero is also another Type A free agent. I’ve never studied up on this enough to know what happens once you’ve already lost your first round pick but there has to be some kind of compensation.

It also takes away some of your flexibility. What if Carlos Guillen comes back and he’s raking but he’s horrible in the field? Now you’ve locked him out of the lineup. It also means Victor Martinez will start more behind the plate and that might wear on him by season’s end. Of course at the end, it’s not my money and if it’s a one year deal, it might be worth the risk and if doesn’t work, you just adjust.

This is a totally unsubstantiated rumor but I’ve heard that Vlad Guerrero is having a physic done for the Tigers. Anyone else in the know about this?

I’ve been a fan of Ryan Strieby for a few years now.  Way back when I was working on Tigers prospect lists, I took some heat for including him in there and was vindicated when he had a stellar season in 2008.  Injuries have plagued him though and this took center stage last year when he only played in 76 games.  His big problem are his wrists and after surgery and now rest, the hope is that the big first baseman will be able to get back on track.

Jason Beck’s latest is a nice profile on Strieby.  He still has work to do in his outfield conversion (hopefully Miguel Cabrera isn’t going anywhere for a long time) so hopefully 2011 will be a fruitful season for Strieby.

Looks like he’s going to the Diamondbacks.  More to follow.

I only half the story this morning because the Tigers not only inked Armando Galarraga to a one year, $2.3 million deal, they also designated him for assignment.  I’ve had a few people ask me why they’d sign him then designate but it looks like the Tigers don’t really know either.  According to the quotes in Jason Beck’s piece, the spin is that they wanted to sign him to avoid arbitration, but when they came to work in the morning and the Brad Penny deal was done, they needed a roster spot so they decided to dump Galarraga.

The hope now is that the Tigers can ship him for at least something although the return on these kinds of trades is usually pretty small.  I don’t see him clearing waivers to sending him to the minors is probably a low chance idea.  I’m not totally surprised because the Tigers seemed luke warm about Galarraga most of the offseason then the Brad Penny signing was icing on the cake.  Still, keeping him around in the event something happens might have been a roster spot worth filling if he could work as a relief pitcher in the meantime.

My analysis is coming later but the Tigers signed Armando Galarraga to a one year deal. This also keeps Dave Dombrowski perfect since coming on board with Detroit because he’s never gone to an arbitration hearing.

One of my plans for 2011 is, now that I have a little more freedom of movement, to hit up a new ballpark each month.  April will probably be tough with tax deadlines that month but beginning with May, I’d like to do some short road trips.  I’m planning on visiting both the White Caps and the Loons but I’d like to maybe venture out as far as Erie and Buffalo (maybe hitting Cleveland on the way back).  Most trips will be for just one night (hit a night game in one town, check out and then hit an afternoon game in another) and they’ll be somewhat planned on the fly (my schedule with my son is month to month) but that’s the goal.

So I’m looking for suggestions.  West Michigan is a must and easy.  I’m going to visit Dow Field and the Loons in July (this one is already set).  Louisville is also in the plans.  I’m thinking of doing a Fort Wayne/Indianapolis trip and a Erie/Buffalo or Cleveland Indians trip but if you have any recommendations, let me know.  And if you live in one of those areas, drop me a line and we can catch a game.

A somewhat familiar face will be back in the Tigers minor league system this year because the team signed Timo Perez to a minor league deal.  If you’re into ancient history, Timo Perez was one of the stars for the Mets in their postseason run back in 2000.  As a rookie, Timo hit .304 and scored eight runs for the Mets in the NLCS against the Cardinals that year (although his World Series was less then newsworthy).

He played briefly for the Cardinals in 2006 but didn’t make the postseason roster for that heartbreaking World Series.  Then in 2007, he was a Tiger and in the middle of a division race, Perez hit .414 in the month of September (and the few games in October) mostly as the every day leftfielder.  He played all year in Toledo in 2008 and since then, he’s split time between playing professional ball down in Mexico and minor league ball in the Phillies and Dodgers organization.

Timo is a career .317 minor league hitter so he’s going to help out one of the Tigers affiliates, whether it’s the Hens or the SeaWolves (not sure who needs the body).

In other blast from the past news, Matt Anderson signed a minor league deal with the Phillies.  Once the Tigers closer and the top pick in the 1997 draft, Anderson was cut loose by the Tigers in 2003 and since then, he’s played in the majors only once (2005, tough season with the Rockies) and he hasn’t pitched in the minors since 2008 when he was in the White Sox organization.  Last year he was invited to spring training by the Giants but didn’t make the cut.

The Tigers inked Joel Zumaya to a one year, $1.4 million deal today and in effect, allowed the team to avoid arbitration with the hard throwing relief pitcher.  We all know Zumaya’s story.  He had a come back last year before he yielded to yet another injury and having a full season of Zumaya will go a long way towards the Tigers having a dominant bullpen like they did in 2006 when they went to the World Series.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Tigers pitch Zumaya because they now have plenty of depth in their pen.  Ryan Perry (a favorite of mine) should make some gains and to go along with Jose Valverde, they have Joaquin Benoit.  The starting pitching has some holes, but I’m liking this bullpen more and more.

That leaves Armando Galarraga as the lone arbitration eligible player out there that the Tigers need to sign.  We’ll see how the Tigers handle that one.

For those of you who are around my age, you may remember Al Cowens.  Chris Jaffe at the Hardball Times tells an interesting story that involves Cowens (both before he was with the Tigers and during). It’s a solid read so be sure to check it out.

The Tigers locked up Ryan Raburn to a two year deal worth $3.4 million.  After a breakout 2009 and a very nice second half in 2010, Raburn is penciled in as the starting left fielder for the Tigers.  This was Rabun’s first year of arbitration eligibility so the Tigers get a little bit of cost certainty by locking him up for 2012 as well.

The Tigers now have only two more arbitration eligible players to contend.  Joel Zumaya and Armando Galarraga are the two and while I think we’ll get Zumaya at a decent rate without much trouble, Galarraga posses a more interesting dilemma now that the Tigers have Brad Penny in the mix.  He’s looking like the odd man out here and he’s out of options so the Tigers have to either make room for him or cut bait.  Jason Beck takes on this question in a well thought out piece. Odds are, Galarraga starts in spring training, but ultimately, it’s to give him some trade value.

Okay, the Tigers shored up their rotation yesterday when they signed Brad Penny to a one year, $3 million deal.  Or did they? Penny started off the 2010 season with the Cardinals and he got off to a nice start before lat and back issues derailed his season in May.  The other knock on him is that his only time in the American League with the Boston Red Sox didn’t go all that well and in 24 starts, he posted a 5.61 ERA in 2009.  Oh, and his last really good season was way back in 2007 when he finished third in the National League Cy Young voting while with the Dodgers.

Still, even with those negatives, I like this signing.  The biggest reason is, you can’t get much of a lower risk then a one year, $3 million deal.  Even if he doesn’t work out, this isn’t going to be one of those debilitating multi-year deals the Tigers have gotten themselves into lately.  Another reason is, we’re talking about just upgrading over our fifth starter, which at this point is Armando Galarraga.  Even in 2006 when the Tigers won 95 games, the Tigers fifth starter (Zach Miner) won only seven games.  Their fourth best starter won 13 that year, which is Galarraga’s best win total.

So in order to evaluate this properly, it’s a Penny versus Galarraga discussion.  Penny has a better strikeout rate and a better walk rate and he’s also not as reliant on the ground ball as Galarraga is.  Plus it gives us some flexibility.  If Penny tanks, then Galarraga can move right into the rotation and if there’s a hole in the pen or the Phil Coke rotation experiment fails, we’re not left an arm short at a key point in the season.  So I like the move and a ten win Brad Penny would mean the Tigers are sitting pretty in the division.

I’ve been hearing rumors that the Tigers are going to sign Brad Penny to a one year deal.  More to follow.

***UPDATE***

Looks like it’s a done deal.  One year, $3 million with the physcial pending.

Alright, the 2011 Tigers are pretty much set.  There may be a few tweaks along the way but the lineup is there, the rotation is pretty much set (at least the front four, I’ve heard some Brad Penny rumors) and the bullpen is in place.  The question now is, what is it going to take for the Tigers to win the American League Central.  While guys like Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander get the well deserved accolades, they are also the givens in the equation.  Most teams can’t have a team full of All Stars so they need a few guys to rise to the occasion.  Miguel Carbera should hit his 30 home runs (it’s what we’re paying him for) and Justin Verlander should win his 18 games (which is what we’re paying “him” for)  but you need those veterans with one last season in the tank to step it up or have that defensive specialist finally put something together at the plate.

In 1984, the Tigers had plenty of those guys.  Guys like Dave Bergman and Rupert Jones made major contributions as role players.  Willie Hernandez got the accolades out of the pen but Aurelio Lopez was nearly as good and he served as a great number two for most of the season.  Milt Wilcox was 34 and he had never won more then 13 games until he stepped it up and had a very solid season in 1984.

So these are the guys who I think are going to be the linchpins for the Tigers in 2011.  Not all of them have to step up big, but if two or even three do, it’s going to be a nice season in Detroit this summer.

Carlos Guillen – When the Tigers went to the World Series in 2006, Carlos Guillen was their best hitter.  Since then he’s played in more then 150 games only once and he’s bounced around the field as the Tigers have made an effort to make room for him.  Now with rumors of him being ready for spring training, Guillen should be penciled in as the everyday second baseman.  Whether he sticks there will go a long way towards the Tigers having a successful season.  He can take a walk and if he reinvents himself as a table setter, he’d make a nice option in the second spot in the lineup.  Of course to draw those walks, he has to pose a threat at the plate.  Out of the four, this is the least likely guy to step up but out of the four, if he does, I think it’ll be where the Tigers get the most bang for their underrated (if overpaid) buck.

Brandon Inge – This is more of a hunch, but I think Brandon Inge is poised for a breakout season.  We saw him succeed in the first half of 2009 and since then, injuries have slowed him down.  Still, even though he only hit 13 home runs in 2010, he hit for almost .250 (last time he did that was 2006), he drew 54 walks (the same amount in 2009 despite 57 fewer plate appearances) and he cut down his strikeout rate.  If that’s a trend, it’s a trend I like and he made up for the lack of home runs with 28 doubles.  I’m going to go out on a limb by saying Brandon Inge will keep this trend going and for the time in his career, finish with an OPS over .800.

Joel Zumaya – Another cornerstone of the 2006 season, Zumaya hasn’t been healthy since.  He’s also supposed to be ready for spring training and if he can pitch like he did last year for an entire season, the Tigers should have one of the more formidable bullpens in baseball.  At this point though, 40 innings is a stretch so we’ll see.

Rick Porcello – As the defense went, so did Rick Porcello in 2011.  Still, if you’re looking for positives, his walk and home run rates went down in 2011 with only a minor blip in his strikeout rate.  If Porcello is going to take the next step, he’s going to have to start striking guys out.  Being economical is great, but the infield defense just isn’t there anymore and it showed by Porcello having a .288 batting average against.  In order to get that down, he’s going to have to start punching guys out and pitching less to the contact.

If all four guys fall flat, the Tigers could be in trouble.  Probably the least important is Joel Zumaya just because there’s guys to fill in. Still, the Tigers have made some nice moves and while I wouldn’t say I’m totally excited over the Tigers prospects this year, I’m definitely intrigued.

Just got this off of the video feed.  Analysis to come.

There’s a piece over at FanGraphs about the Tigers weaknesses.  Like me, there’s a focus on the rotation and Armando Galarraga, Phil Coke and Andrew Oliver are all highlighted.

Alright, with there being not much Tigers news out there, I figured I’d touch on some “me” stuff.  I don’t do this too often so bear with me and while I have a request, it’s free and I’ll get to that in a moment.

At one point in time, I had dreams of becoming a full time blogger.  Those plans fizzled a bit when one of the big search engines put a gigantic hole in my business model.  So since the beginning of 2009, I’ve been focusing on what I went to school for and I restarted my CPA practice.  2010 has been a challenging year for me but despite those challenges, I’ve been able to grow my business.  Now in 2011, I’m looking to take it to the next level and grow things even further.

That’s where my requests come in.  Let’s start out small with just checking out (and liking if you’re interested) my Facebook business page. There you can keep up with the latest tax and accounting trends as well as check out what some of my clients are saying about me.

The other thing I ask is that if you or someone you know might need my services, please let me know.  I’ve been doing this for sixteen years now and while I’m not cheap, my clients feel they get their money’s worth (I don’t even know what the big tax prep firms charge these days but I know I’m competitive with them).  I’ll even review your last few years tax returns for free to see if you missed anything and have the chance for an extra refund and I have a generous referral program so even if you don’t need help, you can benefit from helping me out.  And if you don’t live in the Detroit area, I have a bunch of experience preparing tax returns remotely.  Some of the people that reviewed me on my Facebook page are people who live in different states and one I’ve never met in person (although I need to fix that).  The phone and internet can be wonderful things.  Ultimately, this is who I’m doing it all for (not Spider Man, the other one).  Having my own business gives me the time to focus on my son when I have him.

Thank you for bearing with me. Now back to our regularly schedule programming.

The Tigers are paying Carlos Guillen $13 million in 2011.  I’m going to go out on a limb by saying the Tigers probably won’t get their money’s worth on him (nor have they through his four year deal) but that doesn’t mean Carlos Guillen can’t be a major contributor in the upcoming season.  I’ve always been a Guillen fan and in a lot of ways, he (along with Ivan Rodriguez) were the guys that got the Tigers started on their way back to respectability.  Still, $13 million is a princely sum for a guy who’s OPS hasn’t breached the .800 mark since 2008.

In fact if we stick to OPS, Guillen’s has fallen in each of the last since he had .920 back in 2006 (yes, that 2006).  That’s not good.  With that, Guillen doesn’t have to be a superstar to help the Tigers in 2011.  They already have big bats in Victor Martinez, Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez so if he could become a decent table setter (think 2008’s OBP of .376) and he can play most of the season, he can make a huge impact in the lineup.

Of course for Guillen to have an impact, he has to play.  That’s what makes the latest story about his recovery and the increasing chances that he’ll be ready by Opening Day encouraging.  Of course also in the piece by Beck they ask the question as to how long Guillen will stay healthy and that’s probably the bigger question.

« Previous Entries | Next Entries »

Powered by
WordPress

Click to advertise

http://every1bets.com