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WPA and Last Night’s Tiger Game

Here’s the WPA graph for last night’s Tigers game.  The Tigers got all their win expectancy all the way to 85% by the fourth inning and the it was up over 87% until that the Royals started scoring all of those runs.  At the beginning of the seventh inning, they were down to just over 30%.  The Gary Sheffield double alone was worth close to 15% and then Placido Polanco’s go ahead RBI single gave the Tigers a 26% boost.

No surprise as Placido Polanco had an impressive .523 WPA.  Since the team starts at .500, that means the next of all of the other players combined was actually negative so Polanco’s timely hitting pretty much won the game.  Wil Ledezma finished with a negative .215 and Sean Casey finished at the bottom of the position player list at negative .159.

And Casey is killing us again today! Just killing us!! Why must this charade continue? This is utterly absurd!

Sheffield is garbage, and no one in the broadcast booth is saying anything about it, except to occasionally blow sunshine up Sheff’s ass – “oh, he hasn’t started yet, but for a player of HIS STATURE, it’s only a matter of time. Sheffield has cost us a handful of runs already. He’s coming up with players on base all over the place, and he’s crapping in the batter’s box every time.

I repeat, not every team is going to hand us runs the way the Royals have.

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 10:35 am

Nice hit by Monroe, but he had no business swinging at that pitch. Not 2-0 with bases loaded and two outs. He has a pronounced contempt for bases on balls.

Thames just struck out. Send that bum to the minors!

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 10:37 am

Well, Jones is blowing it. How do you walk the leadoff batter with a 2-run lead to lead off the 9th inning? You might as well just throw it right down the middle!

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:17 am

This is the problem with a pitcher who doesn’t strike anyone out. Nw the Royals are very likely to tie the game with 1st and 3rd and one out.

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:19 am

Just blew it. Awful. Get used to blown saves.

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:20 am

3-0 on Gordon with a man on first base in a tie game, and JUST NOW Rodney is getting up to throw. This team is run by morons.

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:21 am

The Tigers deserve to lose this game. The only runs we have were handed to us on a silver platter, and we insist on using a closer who pretty much guarantees that the ball will be put in play, which means saves are inevitably going to be blown. What a crappy game.

These are big problems, and they will go unnoticed until we start playing real baseball teams. Then, when everything goes wrong, everyone will start writing, “What’s going on with these Tigers?”

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:25 am

Why is Infante being brought in to bunt? Neifi Perez’s single viable skill on offense is bunting ability.

…And Infante screws it up.

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:28 am

Pathetic. Bad managing, terrible approaches at the plate, and a powerless first baseman who essentially cost us the game.

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:30 am

Inge just had the worst at bat I’ve ever seen, save for Casey’s at bat in the 8th (and also, Casey’s earlier pop up with the bases loaded and two outs). The worst non-Casey at bat I mean.

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:31 am

Rodney is bound to blow it here. It is against his religion to not walk or hit one of the first two batters, if not both of them.

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:33 am

2-0, right down the middle, home run. Nice pitch.

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:34 am

This team blows. They will be below .500 by Memorial Day. Most of the real problems were ignored, and we’re going to see it come home to roost. I called the freefall last year, and I’m calling it again.

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:36 am

Rodney looks awful. He’s all over the place, and his mechanics are completely screwed. He needs to be pulled RIGHT NOW, before he gives up another run.

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:38 am

I was wondering when youd pop in Dan. And I’ll remember your below .500 by Memorial Day prediction since all of your others have been so good.

Posted by Brian on April 18th, 2007 at 11:40 am

Nice game for Sheffield. Unfortunately, nothing can be done about him.

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 11:48 am

You have to admit that the Tigers are running on luck. You cannot cart guys like Sean Casey and an useless Gary Sheffield out there every day and expect to win. It makes me mental. They will stick with Casey because he “scoops the ball” and is a “great clubhouse guy.” Unfortunately, He sucks and is the slowest guy in the Majors. Shelton gives us a better chance but he will not get his chance. I completely understand Dan’s anger at the way this team goes about its business. last year we had luck on our side. Its not going to happen this time. Leyland will never drop Sheffield in the order or bench him…Sheffield has killed us. Casey has killed us…Inge has killed us.

Posted by Michael on April 18th, 2007 at 12:01 pm

Haven’t they Brian? I called the Tigers blowing it last year down the stretch, and this was at the enf of July. Do you recall what their record was at the end of July? I have been wrong a few times, but I’ve been right a whole lot more, but you don’t care about that, do you Brian? You don’t because you want to run the HappyLand Tigers in a Gumdrop House on Lollipop Lane blog. Have fun with it while I sit here and worry about actual problems with the baseball team. I know it isn’t worth worrying about on a grander scale, but hey, I’m a Tigers fan. I’m a Tigers fan who knows his ass form his elbow, which puts me in an extreme minority as far as those things go. I’m a Tigers fan who knows baseball, and it’s a lonely feeling.

You have yet to outline what it is you disagree with and why, Brian. You haven’t done that because you’re just another fan who perpetuates willful ignorance, and you know enough to know that I’m right, despite my unsavory methods.

No one gives a damn about the facts, and no one wants their hopes and wishes to be inconvenienced by them. No one wants to hear anything negative, no matter what. You guys ought to all take up a different hobby.

Cut the snarky comments, Brian, and start writing something that we can’t get from the box scores and the pedestrian, platitudinous newspapers.

We are carting crappy players out there every day, and eventually it’s going to cost us more than it just cost us with the Royals, who handed us almost every run we score this week.

Care to hear what I’m sure you’ll see as an overblown and incongruous comparison but actually isn’t? The sort of ignorance perpetuated on this blog and all the others like it is the same kind that saddled us with a government full of murderous assholes. No one cares to hear things in plain language, and no one cares to address the real issues.

Your blog will be a much nicer place without me, Brian, but I’m sure that’s the point. Whatever keeps you happy, right?

Posted by Dan on April 18th, 2007 at 12:02 pm

Oh and Rodney has killed us…Joe Table has killed us…Durbin sucks..

Posted by Michael on April 18th, 2007 at 12:03 pm

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