Here’s the WPA graph for last night’s Tigers game. The Tigers got all their win expectancy all the way to 85% by the fourth inning and the it was up over 87% until that the Royals started scoring all of those runs. At the beginning of the seventh inning, they were down to just over 30%. The Gary Sheffield double alone was worth close to 15% and then Placido Polanco’s go ahead RBI single gave the Tigers a 26% boost.
No surprise as Placido Polanco had an impressive .523 WPA. Since the team starts at .500, that means the next of all of the other players combined was actually negative so Polanco’s timely hitting pretty much won the game. Wil Ledezma finished with a negative .215 and Sean Casey finished at the bottom of the position player list at negative .159.