Archive for the '2005 Tigers' Category

Over the course of the franchise, the Tigers have had two BIG free agent pickups. Ever. The first was the pickup of Darrell Evans just prior to the 1984 season, and that one seemed like a bust after a mediocre campaign that season. The following year he won the homerun crown, and he played a big role in Tigers 1987 division title, so it turned out okay.

The second big free agent pickup was last year’s signing of Ivan Rodriguez, who was instrumental in the Tigers 29 game improvement from 2003.

This year, it appears the Tigers are set to make another splash with yet another “undesirable.” Magglio Ordonez had a bum knee that eventually resulted in surgery. He played a grand total of 52 games, but his previous three seasons were extremely consistent. In each season he put up right around a .380 OBP and had an equivalent average that ranged from .300 (2001) to .312 (2002). That low end would have tied him with the equivalent average Pudge put up in 2004, and the 2002 season would have been better then the .305 Carlos Guillen had.

To put it simply, Ordonez can hit. He’s nothing special in the field, but that’s not why we’d be signing him. The main concern is the knee. People will point to the risk we took in signing Pudge, but the difference is that he played an entire season the year before. Ordonez is fresh off his injury.

Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA projections today. I can’t go into too much detail because it’s only available to subscribers, but they have him missing around a third of the season. However, when he’s in there he’s very good.

My personal opinion is, I’m excited about the move. Part of it has to do with karma. The Tigers are due for a break, and this could be it. If Ordonez can play an entire season like he’s done in the immediate future, the improvement to the team will be dramatic.

The author of the Replacement Level Yankees Blog, Larry Mahnkan, suffered a personal tragedy early this morning. As he indicates on his blog, his apartment burnt down early this morning. I know it won’t make for his loss, but if you could afford to send him a buck or more, he has a paypal donation counter on the left hand side of his blog. I’m sure he’d appreciate the help.

There’s more grim news as former Tiger shortstop Cesar Gutierrez passed away from a heart attack on Saturday. Gutierrez came to the Tigers from the Giants in 1969, and played his only full season for the Tigers in 1970. He played in 135 games and hit .243/.275/.299, but the highlight of his career was a 7 for 7 performance on June 21, 1970. He ended up with six singles, a double, three runs scored and an RBI in the Tigers 12 inning victory. The following season he played in only 38 games, and wouldn’t see another game in the big leagues.

There’s a new Grousehouse site in the works. Expecting to finish his site by the end of February, Jon Earving, one of my more persistent chat and email buddies, is going to launch what I feel is a pretty unique baseball site called Simulation Baseball. And he needs your help.

A lot of us have heard of, or played Diamond Mind Baseball, a fantastic baseball simulator. Jon’s site is going to offer a weekly “What If” look at some aspect of baseball. In fact since he’s more familiar with the program, Blade and I will be having him do our 1975 Reds/1984 Tigers matchup once we’re finished with our debate.

I’ve talked to him and he currently has the 2003, 2004, All Time Greatest Teams # 1 Disc, and the All TIme Greatest Teams #2 Disc. What he’d like to see is what everyone would like to see, so feel free to email him at jonearving@yahoo.com. Some of the ideas he’s come up with and you’ll probably see in the first month or so include:

1) What if Barry Bonds played for the 2003 Tigers? How many more games would Bonds win them?

2) What if Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds were traded at the beginning of the 2004 season? How would the two teams be affected?

3) What if somoene took Manny Ramirez from the Red Sox when they placed him on waivers.

But what he’d really like is to have it a site where you tell him what you want to see, and he runs the sim and posts the results in a narrative format. As far as I know, there’s no other site out there like this, so I for one am looking forward to it.

It’s kind of sad that this is the biggest news in Detroit. Dean Palmer was good when he started out for Detroit. He hit 38 homers when the Tigers played at Tiger Stadium in 1999, and he hit 29 more in 2000.

Then shoulder problems put him on the shelf, and he hasn’t played the equivalent of a full season over the last four years. Probably the closest comparison to this (and its a stretch), is when Kirk Gibson came back to play for Detroit in 1993 after moving on to the Dodgers in 1988. The major differences are that he never missed a full season, and at worst, was playing half seasons.

Double this with the fact that we don’t really have room for Palmer, and it makes this whole thing a non-story.

My latest column is up over at the Hardball Times. This time take a look at the Angels name change game. Aaron Gleeman also take a second look at Albert Pujols.

No signings. No trade rumors. The most exciting news this week has been Dean Palmer getting a shot at spring training, and that’s hardly news. Most people come here for Tigers news, and there really isn’t any, so here’s some excellent reading suggestions for you.

I know this isn’t baseball, but the Detroit Lions Blog has an excellent interview with author Michael Cambridge. Great historical stuff for the football fans out there.

The Hardball Times has had two great columns come out the past couple of days. John Brattain takes a look at the 1960s, and Studes takes a good hard look at last year’s relief pitchers.

Billfer analyzes the Tigers Defense Independent Pitching Statistics.

Blade wrote his rebuttal to my column on Dan Petry. If you couldn’t find it when you read about Dan, you can check it out now. He also did a piece earlier in the week on the Red’s All Decade team of the 1880s (no, that’s not a typo).

Finally, there’s been some changes in how the league is going to approach performance enhancing drug testing, and the best place for any kind of updates is Only Baseball Matters.

I always liked Eric Munson, and felt he got a bad deal in Detroit. The former first round draft pick (third overall) would play well down in the minors only to get brought up for a short time and get shelled. Then they move him to a spot he’d never played before, third base, and expected him to thrive. Munson would have flashes of what the Tigers expected from him when they drafted him so high, but most days, he was better suited for the bench then the lineup.

Munson had equally good minor league campaigns in 2001 and 2002. He hit .260/.375/.482 at AA Erie in 2001, and .262/.373/.493 at AAA Toledo in 2002. He also spent portions of both years playing for the Tigers but struggled mightily. he hit .152 in 66 at bats in 2001, and .186 in 59 at bats in 2002.

In 2003, the third base experiment began. Munson was drafted as a catcher, was summarily moved to first base, and with the logjam of 1b/DH types on the Tigers, his only shot was to learn a brand new position. He struggled, hitting only .240, with 18 homers.

2004 ended up being his last chance. He made some improvements defensively, improving from -12 Fielding Runs Above Average to 0 FRAR, but he struggled ever more at the plate. He hit only .210, but he had a career high 19 homers in 321 at bats.

He lost his starting job to Brandon Inge midway through the season and never won it back. When it was time to offer players arbitration, Inge got the contract and Munson got his walking papers. But now he’s got a second chance with the Twins. He signed a minor league contract with the Tigers’ division rivals, and has been invited to spring training.

This has “in your face” written all over it. I find it hard to believe he’ll make the team, because the Twins don’t have a lot of holes. But if they have one, it’s at third base with Corey Koskie leaving. I could see him getting a backup role, and really making the Tigers pay at some point in the season.

The Detroit Tigers Weblog had an exclusive interview with Tigers’ President Dave Dombrowski. Be sure to check this out. Very good stuff.

I was working on a bio of Charlie Gehringer for the 1935 diary section, but couldn’t quite get it done this morning. In the mean time, check out these great columns over at Hardball Times:

Team Bullpens by Studes
Rivals in Exile: Everybody Was Wrong by Ben Jacobs and Larry Mahnken

Whether you call it a perverse dream or a slim chance, I’ve been dreaming about the Tigers signing Carlos Beltran for some time. He’s one of the top five players in the league. I don’t know if the Tigers are still gun shy after some of their “big” free agent signings in the late 90s and early 00s (think Bobby Higginson and Damion Easley), but the Tigers could have really made their mark had they offered Beltran say, another year and maybe a half million more each year.

Instead, the Mets hit the jackpot, and we’re stuck with another season watching Alex Sanchez trying to get an eye on the ball. Alex Sanchez has a WARP of just under one, and Carlos Beltran has a WARP of 8.4. That’s 7-8 wins we could have bought, pushing us very close to that .500 mark. And I know protection may be more myth then fact, but it would give Pudge some better pitches to hit.

Now I know Beltran may not have come to Detroit under any circumstances, but they should have kept themselves in the bargaining until the very end.

Over at Hardball Times, Steve Treder takes a look at the 1952 season. Good stuff.

Vance Wilson is hardly a world beater, and I figured they’d try for a left hander, but not a bad move. It looks like he had surgery on his wrist last year, and he was limited to 75 games. But 2004 was his best season, where he hit .274/.335/.427, which was good for an OPS+ of 97. If he can repeat those stats in 2005, we’ll have a solid backup.

Which means Brandon Inge, as expected, is the Tigers new third basemen. Barring an injury, he shouldn’t have to play behind the plate at all, although having him on the roster gives Tram a ton of flexibilty.

I read over at Reds Daily that the Tigers might be looking at a deal with the Reds for Austin Kearns. So far Kearns has disappointed, mostly because of injury, but he was a blue chip prospect and could come up this year like Adam Dunn did last year. As much as I like Mike Maroth, I’d jump at the chance of trading him for Kearns.

Finally, it’s been reported that the Tigers are out of the running for Carlos Beltran. Not a big surprise, but it could also be a smokescreen. Who knows?

If everything goes as planned, you’ll be able to read part two of my column on the Montreal Expos move to Washington over at the Hardball Times tomorrow.

Congratulations to Wade Boggs and Ryne Sandberg for being elected by the writers this week. The mid-80s was when I really got into baseball, and at the time, Wade Boggs was the best hitter out there. I really feel his first ballot election was warranted.

I have mixed feelings about Ryne Sandberg. First off, I want to say I do think he was deserving. But his election points out another travesty. Let’s look at two second basemen.

            Player 1   Player 2

Games       2,164      2,390

Hits        2,386      2,369

HR            282        244

RBIs        1,061      1,084

Runs        1,318      1,386

Avg.         .285       .276

OBP          .344       .363

Slg%         .452       .426

SB            344        143

OPS+          114        117

RC          1,311      1,336

BRAR          513        528

FRAR          533        454

WARP          114.8      108.1

Eqa          .281       .281

Player 2 played in about a season’s worth more games, won three gold gloves and finished in the top 10 of the MVP voting once. Player 2 also played on one championship team. Player 1 won an MVP, finished in the top ten three times, and won nine gold gloves. Player 1 never played on a world championship team.

Many of the statistics are nearly identical. The equivalent averages are identical. Player 1 had a marginally better slugging percentage, while player 2 had a marginally better OBP. Many of their career numbers are very close as well. Player 1 accounted for about six more wins then player 2, but all because he was a slightly better fielder.

Player 1 is Ryne Sandberg, who will get to stand on the podium and give an acceptance speech. Player 2 is Lou Whitaker, who in his first year on the ballot, didn’t even garner the 5% neccesary to remain on the ballot.

So I’m not arguing Sandberg shouldn’t get in, I am saying Lou should be right up there with him. Both should get their moment in the spotlight. Unfortunately for one those players, it will never happen.

As an aside, Bert Blyleven again got the shaft, as did Goose Gossage, possibly the best relief pitcher ever.

I know, this is hardly a blockbuster, but somewhat neccesarily. Their utility guy from last year, Brandon Inge, is now the starting third baseman. So with the infield looking like it will be Pena, Infante (until Fernando Vina is ready to come back), Guillen, and Inge, they need someone to be the spot starter there, and Ramon Martinez played second, short, and third last season.

It’s not as ideal as the Tigers signing Adrian Beltre, allowing Brandon Inge to roam, but it looks like the best we can do.

But definitely worth reading. I must have more in common with the guys over at Baseball Prospectus then I thought, because I think they’re right on point.

It’s now January, and by this time last year, we had signed Rondell White, Fernando Vina, and had made a trade for Carlos Guillen. The Pudge signing was in the works, and the Tigers looked liked they would be bouncing back from one of the worst seasons by any team in history.

This year, the Tigers got off to a quick start. They signed Troy Percival, who at one time was one of the top closers in the lead. Then they were mentioned as a player for just about every other major free agent out there.

But one by one, these major free agents began to sign. Troy Glauss, gone. J.D. Drew, see ya. Adrian Beltre, nothing. Carl Pavano, off to greener pastures. Now, most of these first tier players are gone. Carlos Beltran is the one big name still out there, but it seems like when the Tigers are mentioned, it’s more in passing. “The Yankees and Mets are looking to sign Beltran and, oh yeah, the Tigers too (snicker).”

I know a lot will write in about Derek Lowe. I think he’d be a nice pick up, but it would also depend on the price. He had a very rough season last year, outside of the playoffs, and I’m not certain the Tigers have the infield defense for such an extreme ground ball pitcher.

As always, I’ll be waiting. And seeing. But the way things are looking now, I think the Tigers are going to take a small step back next year (I’ll explain in more detail once the free agent season is over with).

I had a nice New Years. I got in a game of Axis and Allies with a friend, and did a bunch of running around throughout the weekend. I’m actually looking forward to getting back into a regular routine.

Rather then complain more, I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year. Check back in on Monday, and I’ll the Jack Morris piece up for the 1975 Reds/1984 Tigers debate with Blade.

The Reds got Eric Milton, so yet another starting pitcher eludes the Tigers. Frankly, I’m not too sad about this one. Milton gave up a ton of homeruns, and shouldn’t have had the record he did in Philly last year.

So, I go to the free agent tracker for starting pitching to see who’s left. Derek Lowe is still out there, as is the one year wonder, Esteban Loaiza. I think at this point, it’s yet another guy who hasn’t been mentioned much that’s the most intriuging, and that’s Odalis Perez. He’s had a couple of nice seasons, and he’s still only 27 years old. Shawn Estes and Omar Daal are also still out there.

And then there’s Carlos Beltran. The Tigers are still popping up as potential suitors, and it’s probably just one big tease. By the end of the week, the Yankees could have both Randy Johnson and Beltran on their team.

Alright, I’m not one to normally make excuses, but I’ve had a really tough time keeping up the last couple of weeks. Between last weekend running right into Christmas, and shaking in a very busy time for me at work has left me running from one place to the next. I didn’t finish my shopping until late Wed. night, and we’ve spent most of the last two days away from home.

I was hoping to catch up on some things today (starting a nice year end piece, along with finishing my D.C. column for the Hardball Times), but now my wife isn’t feeling well, so I’ve had to take care of the little man all day, which is fun because he has a bunch of new toys, but also tiring and time consuming. He just went down for a nap, so this is my semi-daily diatribe.

Next weekend doesn’t look like it’s going to be much better as we’re busy every day from Friday through Sunday. I did make out nicely at Christmas with regard to my board game collection, getting both Axis and Allies and Axis and Allies – D-Day, along with Memoir ’44. I also got a couple of new additions to my Advanced Squad Leader collection as well.

Fortunately, little is going on. The headline story on Yahoo is about Olympic Stadium being gutted. Jason Varitek re-signed with the Red Sox, and the Tigers have signed nobody.

I’m playing in the Superbowl of my fantasy football league. The big game for both of us is the Pats/Jets game. He has Curtis Martin, and I’ll have Corey Dillon and Tom Brady. Go Pats.

I read this story on Yahoo this evening. It seems like the Tigers have been mentioned as pursuing just about every major free agent this off-season.

To say it would be nice if Carlos Beltran signed with Detroit would be the equivalent of saying Ron Artest is a little unusual. Both would be major understatements. This would make the Pudge signing look like, well, the second biggest signing ever. I’ve been talking about the Tigers trying to get him for a long time on this site.

But they’ve been shot down by just about everyone else (outside of Troy Percival), so I’m not holding my breath.

I really liked Eric Munson, but the more I saw, the more I figured it was time to let him move on. He actually made some strides at third base, going from a below average fielder to an average fielder. Unfortunately, his bat took a step back. Munson seemed to have a ton of potential, and you’d see this in brief flashes, like his monster home run into the deepest part of Comerica Park last year. But a .212 average and a .289 OBP doesn’t quite cut it for a guy who just turned 27. I wish him the best of luck wherever he ends up.

Which leads us to our new starting third basemen, Brandon Inge. Oh what a weird path some people travel. Brandon was left for dead after the Tigers signed Ivan Rodriguez, but he bounced back nicely in 2004, playing the role of utility man. With an OPS+ of 108, he sported his first season where he was above the 65 mark. Even if Brandon regresses a little to say .270/.325/.435, you still have a fine commodity in a guy who plays a good third base and catcher.

Alex Sanchez is the most frustrating of the moves. I’ve never cared for him, and he seems to make base running mistake after baserunning mistake (just from watching the games). The only thing good you can say about him is he hit .320. A very hollow .320. He stole 19 bases, but was caught 13 times, hurting his team more then helping them in those 32 attempts. His equivalent average was a poor .248, and his OPS+ was only 91 (actually a career high). Throw in the fact he’s not very good out in the field, and it makes me yearn for the signing of J.D. Drew.

If the Tigers want to make a big splash, throw 10 years and $210 million at Carlos Beltran. Mike Illitch proved he’d put good money out for a top notch player back when they were pursuing Juan Gonzelez, and he did it again for Pudge.

But all in all, none of this was unexpected. Nook Logan isn’t quite ready to play every day, so Sanchez was the cheap alternative for one more year. In the next couple of weeks, we’ll really start to see the 2005 Tigers team take shape, and it’s looking more and more like it did in 2004 then I’d like.

I’m feeling better, and I’m really trying to get back into the swing of things. It was interesting to see D.C. finally resolve all of their issues, and I’m hoping to have the second and final installment of that narrative done here soon. I’ll probably check in one more time before then, but if you’re checking out, have a safe and happy holiday.

I sit here with a fever, so hopefully I’ll keep this coherent. I’m trying to get caught up on all the baseball news, so I’m hoping to be up and ready tomorrow. In the meantime, chew on this story……

This weekend we celebrated Christmas with my mom’s side of the family. The four siblings alternate with my uncle having his turn this year. He’s the only who lives out of town, and he resides in Louisville, KY.

So Friday we made the trek down a little later then we anticipated. We got caught in Cincinnati during rush hour, and it slowed us down. Once we got into Kentucky, the change of altitude really hit my wife, who has problems with her ears. She basically rode the final hour and a half with a head ache. Fortunately my six month old son was trooper and held up well.

Saturday came and went. We went on a tour of the Lousiville Slugger plant, which was very cool, and my boy got to swin in a pool for the first time. We also got to spend time with the family, most of which I don’t see too often because I live an hour or so away.

Sunday was when the proverbial shit hit the fan. I woke up feeling like crap. By mid afternoon I knew I had a fever, and had eaten as little as I could for fear of getting sick. In the meantime, the windshield wiper fluid line froze, and we weren’t able to clean the windows. On one of our stops to clean the windows, we hit a curb, and flattend our tire in Troy, OH.

At this point, it was 1:30 or so in the afternoon. It was well below zero with the wind chill, and I had a fever. So I call AAA while trying to keep everyone calm. After being on hold for close to an hour, I finally got help with the spare, and we made our was to the closest Sears Auto Centers, about ten miles up I-75.

By this time it was 3 pm, thinking we’d get a tire, and be home relatively late. But our story doesn’t end. I have a Pontiac Aztec. Very inexpensive, and a pretty ugly vehicle. One of the reasons it’s inexpensive is because they’re not very popular. Seemed nice at the time, but when we got to Sears, I found out not only did they not have the correct tire, but no Sears within 100 miles had one. We tried Walmart as well, with no luck.

So we checked into a hotel in Piqua, OH. After more unloading of the car in subzero tempatures, I finally tried to eat something, and could only swallow down half of a Quiznos sub. We walked around the local mall, and by 6 pm, I was laid up in bed sweating out my fever.

I felt only marginally better today, but got up and started searching through the yellow pages for a 17″ tire. I finally found a place about twelve miles away in Sidney, OH. By 11 pm, I had my tire on, and by noon we were on the road home, only to find it snowing.

So that’s how my weekend went. We got home safe, which is always a bonus, but it was pretty trying. So I hope you can all be patient with me as I get back up to speed.

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