Archive for the '2007 Tigers' Category

In a recent THT Mailbag, David Gassko takes on the question of whether a move to first base by Carlos Guillen would dramatically decrease his value to the team.  As a shortstop, Carlos Guillen is an elite hitter but as a first baseman, he’s probably only considered good.  He concludes that while Guillen’s value to the team would go down, he’d still make a formidable and productive first baseman.  He also takes into account the three year projections that are part of the Hardball Times 2007 Preseason Book.  Interesting and to the point analysis here.

This story isn’t about Jason Grilli, it’s about Padres reliever Scott Linebrink.  A lot of people forget that Jason Grilli was once a top prospect and he was taken fourth overall in 1997 draft by the Giants.  The Giants second round pick that year was Linebrink and you get some mentions of Grilli in the column.  I found the excerpt about how Grilli has narrowly missed out on three World Series rings the last three years particularly interesting.

I should have passed this on to Mike at Tigers Minors but I found it first.  John Sickels has an interesting prospect smackdown that pits two pitching Millers against each other.  Most people know who Andrew Miller is by now but the Indians have an equally good, if not better pitching prospect in Adam Miller.  Nice write up though and you’ll learn a lot about Andrew Miller, as well as Adam Miller who we’ll be seeing quite often in years to come when the Tigers play the Indians.

The Tigers and Braves played an eleven inning 4-4 tie in which plenty of pitchers got some work.  Jeremy Bonderman was touched up for a run (and it came on the only hit he gave up, a solo shot by Craig Wilson) in his three innings but he struck out two.  I talked about Edward Campusano today and he pitched a scoreless inning in which he struck out one although he got into trouble when he gave up a walk and a hit.  And Jordan Tata had a rough outing in which he walked two, gave up two runs and threw a wild pitch in a single inning.

Eleven different Tigers scattered eleven hits and probably the guy who had the best day at the plate was Neifi Perez.  He went one for three but he walked twice.  Vance Wilson had the only extra base hit on a double that he eventually scored a run on.  Nate Robertson will get the start tomorrow against the undefeated (at this moment, they take on the Yankees tonight) Reds.

I’ve quietly pushed for Edward Campusano to get the chance as the Tigers LOOGY (Left Handed One Out Guy) in 2007.  He was plucked in the Rule 5 draft from the Cubs by the Brewers then traded to the Tigers and if he doesn’t make the team, we lose him.  81 strikeouts in 54 innings is impressive at any level and that’s what he did last year.

I’m now not alone.  In a recent column at Baseball Analysts, Marc Hulet breaks down the 2006 Rule 5 draft and agrees that Campusano should be put into that left handed role.  This is a good read and while it’s not really surprising, the Tigers have made more Rule 5 picks (although the time frame isn’t specified, it’s probably the last five or so years) then any other team in baseball as of late.

It’s spring so while a loss is a loss, it’s not always a negative and the Tigers had a few positives in today’s ten inning loss fo the Jays.  First off,  Mike Maroth threw three shutout innings and he’s looked sharp in his two starts so far.  Second, Jose Mesa struck out two in his single inning as he slowly tries to make a fool out of me for being down on him.  Third, Placido Polanco has been absolutely on fire.  He’s now hitting .714 with seven RBIs.

So it’s not all bad even though the Tigers spring standing has come pretty close to evening out at .500.  Jeremy Bonderman will get the start tomorrow against the Braves and it’s on the radio here in Detroit.

The Hardball Times has published their first season preview and you can read the details in this column.  For $9, you get a quality pdf with a ton of analysis as well as three year’s worth of projections for most players you’ll see playing in 2007.  It’s somewhat geared for fantasy baseball players and there’s a few essays in that regard but you also get a team by team look at what could and should happen in 2007.

On top of that, it’s a great way to support the site.  In my opinion (yes, I’m biased), the Hardball Times is the best free baseball website out there.  Every day you can check in and read some great baseball analysis.  By dropping $9, you get a great book and you help the site do more (like the fielding stats I mentioned, this stuff costs money).

Journeyman reliever Felix Heredia gave up a walk off homerun to Yankees prospect Bronson Sardinha today in the Tigers 6-5 loss to the Yankees.  The Tigers blew a lot of chances and I know they had the bases loaded in both the first and second innings (at least, they might have also loaded them up in the fourth) but walked away with only a pair of runs (and they were both on bases loaded walks).

Justin Verlander was knocked around for three runs including a two run shot by Hideki Matsui.  Andrew Miller gave up a run in his two innings of work but Zach Miner looked sharp with two shutout innings.

Ivan Rodriguez had two hits and two runs while Placido Polanco had two hits and two RBIs.  The Tigers play the Blue Jays tomorrow and it doesn’t look like it’ll be picked up by either the Tigers or the Blue Jays so all we’ll get is a box score.

I just got my copy of Baseball Prospectus 2007 today.  BP was one of the first annuals I started buying and while it’s now become one of several books I pick up every year, it’s still a joy getting it in the mail and I still find myself flipping through an older edition now and then (which I did when I did my write up on Chad Durbin).

One of the first Tiger writeups that stood out was Marcus Thames.  His projection has him at .257/.342/.521 with 27 homeruns in 452 plate appearances.  No other Tiger has more projected homeruns and this is a guy who as of right now, has no every day spot in the Tigers lineup.  They’re trying him at first base to give the Tigers a left/right platoon at first but this is a guy who should be in the lineup every day.

Which gets us to Craig Monroe.  I know he came up with some timely hits last year but I’m still going to contend that if given the choice, Marcus Thames should be the starter in left field.  Monroe is probably the better fielder but not enough to warrant more at bats then Thames.  And of course Monroe’s projections come out at a more mediocre .265/.316/.458 with 21 homeruns in 553 plate appearances. 

And I don’t want to sound like I’m down on Monroe because I think he’s a good ballplayer, I just think Thames is better.  For some reason though, Thames has been on the short end of the left field stick and it looks like only a trade (whether it’s Thames or Monroe) will free up Thames.  I just have a feeling that if a deal is made, it’ll be the wrong guy that goes.

***UPDATE 3/6/07***

I didn’t notice this until today, but it’s Marcus Thames’ birthday.  He’s now 30.  Happy birthday Marcus.

Billfer has a game thread going over at DTW.  If you’re watching the game, stop on by and take part.  It’s his first game thread of the year and it’s the first televised spring game of the year.

Alright, I’m picking this one up a little bit late but the Tigers and Indians are in the fourth inning.  C.C. Sabathia looked sharp for the Indians and he struck out three in his two innings while Kenny Rogers was knocked around.  He gave up two runs on three hits and a walk in two innings.  The Tigers cut the lead in half when Craig Monroe scored on Magglio Ordonez’s sac. fly.  Indians 2, Tigers 1. 

***UPDATE 1***

Alright, the Tigers bounced back with six runs in the fourth inning off of Chuck Lofgren with the big hit being a three run homerun off of Ramon Santiago.  Ordonez drew a bases loaded walk and he now has two RBIs without getting a single hit.  Then in the bottom half of the inning, the Indians got a run on a solo shot by David Delucci.  Tigers 7, Indians 3 heading into the fifth inning.

***UPDATE 2***

Things really calmed down after that fifth inning and only the Indians scored another run and that wasn’t until the ninth.  Kyle Sleeth looked sharp with two shutout innings and three strikeouts and Virgil Vazquez threw two shutout innings and struck out two.

Tomorrow, the Tigers are on ESPN against the Yankees at 1:05.  And if you have Gameday Audio, you can listen to the Diamondbacks versus the Rockies at 9:05.

Playoff hero Kenny Rogers gets his first spring start of the season today.  This’ll be an interesting season for Rogers because most everyone I talked to thinks Rogers will regress a bit in 2007 and that there’s little chance he’ll hit his 2006 numbers.  Then again, I never thought he’d hit his 2006 numbers when the Tigers signed him so he’s made a believer out of me before.  I haven’t gotten my press pass yet so I’m unsure as to who else is throwing for Detroit.  It would be nice if we returned the favor against the Indians today seeing as how they blew us out yesterday.  Game time is 1:05 and the game will be on the Indians network, WTAM 1100.

One and one third innings, eight hits, one hit batter and nine runs against (seven earned).  That was Tiger reliever Jason Grilli’s stat line today as he got pummelled by the Indians offense.  And I know I’ve been bashing Jose Mesa recently, but it looks like (I didn’t listen to the game nor do I have play by play, I’m surmising this from the box score) at least one of Grilli’s runs scored off of Jose Mesa, and then Mesa was tagged for two unearned runs in the fourth.  So if you’re selective, you can say he had two strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA in 1 2/3 innings when at least two, and probably three or more runs, scored on his watch.

I get the feeling the Tiger regulars just played this one out as they managed only two runs on six hits.  Craig Monroe hit a solo shot in the first inning, his first homerun of the spring and then Timo Perez drove home Marcus Thames with a sac.fly.  Thames played the entire game at first base and had two hits but he also had an error.

On a good note, Nate Robertson and Edward Campusano each threw two scoreless.  I really think Rule Five pick Edward Campusano is going to come out of camp as the last pitcher and do as good of a job as he can at replacing Jamie Walker.  At least I’m hoping he does because he really has a live arm.

A great new Tigers resource called the Tigers Corner should be out soon.  You get a ton of information headed into the 2007 season like an interview with Andrew Miller and a close look at Cameron Maybin as well as a ton of details on the 2006 season.  You’ll also get a ton of historical articles, one of which I wrote and one of which I helped with.  There’s a column called “Unlikely Heroes” which takes a look at some of the  unlikely stars on each of the four Tiger’s World Series teams and the 2006 team as well as some predictions as to who might be an unlikely hero in 2007.  I also wrote synopyses on the 1935, 1945 and 1968 seasons.  And 112 pages (it’a larger size book as well), you get a ton of other stuff as well.

About a week ago I discussed how Curtis Granderson could improve a bit just by striking out 20 fewer times, which kind of goes along with how important it can be to make contact.  You strike out, nothing happens.  If you put the ball in play, you never know how the ball could drop.  You also have the chance of moving runners over.

That’s why I found an interesting stat in this Baseball America column (sorry, sub. only) that lists the best and worst minor league players at certain things.  Near the very bottom of the “making contact” list was Cameron Maybin.  He made contact with the ball only 70%, and that was the second worst mark.  Cause for concern?  Maybe, but I’d feel more worried if Maybin wasn’t sandwiched between two other top prospects.  The worst contact percentage was Angels top prospect Brandon Wood at 68% and coming in at third is White Sox high end prospect Josh Fields at 71%.

Regardless, it’s definitely something Maybin can improve on.  With his speed, by cutting down on his strikeout total by say 10, he can probably pick up three more hits.

Cameron Maybin hit one of the Tiger’s four homeruns today and he was a perfect two for two with two RBIs and a run.  Ivan Rodriguez also had a big day once again hitting from the lead off spot.  He went three for three with a dinger, two RBIs and two runs.  Omar Infante and Brent Clevlen also went yard for the Tigers in the 13-8 win.  The Tigers scored some runs against some big names too.  They scored three against Roy Oswalt and four against Brad Lidge.

The pitching was kind of mixed.  Jeremy Bonderman gave up a run but struck out three in his two innings and Wil Ledezma also sounded sharp in two shutout innings.  Jordan Tata walked three and gave up two runs in 2/3’s of inning while Byrdak got knocked around for three runs in one inning. 

This is just one of those things I noticed in the box scored but the Astros put six balls in play against Ledezma (no strikeouts).  Five of the six of those were flyouts and only one was a ground out.  In 2006, his ground ball percentage was only 33.5% (so about two fly ball outs to every ground ball out).  Somehow he managed to keep his homeruns down but it’ll be interesting to see if whether they stay down if that fly ball trend continues.

Another good game though, and the Tigers are now 3-0.  I know it doesn’t mean much until late spring but I guess you’d always rather win then lose.

I remember hearing about this project with Eli Zaret a while ago and I’ve been waiting for it to come out since.  Now it looks like the wait is over Denny McLain’s new autobiography, I Told You I Wasn’t Perfect, is now out.  He has some choice comments for guys like Jim Price and Al Kaline.  It’s over 400 pages and you’re talking about one of the more colorful players in baseball so this will probably be a solid read.

And of course if you want to follow McLain and how he did in 1967, he plays a pretty big part in the 1967 AL Pennant Race site I started up.  I’ll work on a retro for him this week since it seems pretty timely.

I can’t think of any Tiger pitcher in a long time who’s had the expectations that Jeremy Bonderman has and he kicks off his spring season today.  It’s hard to believe just four years ago in the Spring of 2003 he was beginning his run to make the team as a 20 year old.  Now whenever someone talks about Bonderman, they sometime use Cy Young award in the same sentence.

Also getting some time on the mound will be Wil Ledezma, Joey Eischen, Tim Byrdak and Yorman Bazardo.  I’m particularly interested in seeing how Bazardo does this spring.  Roy Oswalt will get the start for the Astros so you’ll have both team’s aces going.  The game is at 1:05 and if you have MLBaudio, you can pick the game up because the Astros are broadcasting the game on their network.  I’ll probably get to tune in for the beginning of the game.  There’s also a night game (which I’ll probably also miss) between the Yankees and the Twins.

In an effort to provide even more information for free, the Hardball Times is making available a slew of fielding stats on their player cards.  Now you can check out each players’ basic fielding stats (like putouts and errors) by position as well as a new and improved Zone Rating developed by stat guru John Dewan and BIS and you can also find plays that the fielder made out of their zone.  There’s also some nice new information for catchers as well.

For an example, here’s a link to Brandon Inge’s page.

Good stuff.  And if you haven’t bought the book yet, what have you been waiting for.

Earlier today, I mentioned a Detroit News story that talked about how a big Michael Young contract extension would boost the cost of Carlos Guillen and I mentioned that Guillen and Young are pretty comparable.  I got a comment from Rangers blogger Joe Siegler that disagreed and I countered with some numbers.  He brings up some good points in Young’s favor on his blog but he also includes Guillen’s season from four years ago (ancient history) when he was a part timer with the Mariners.

My contention is, Carlos Guillen is as good as Michael Young.  Agree or disagree and why?  And taking it a step further, would you trade Guillen for Young straight up right now.  Leave a comment and let me know.

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